Climate change projections
Understanding the risks and likely impacts of climate change is important because it allows for meaningful and appropriate adaptation responses to be designed and implemented.
Climate models allow us to project Queensland’s future climate, which is an important part of developing Queensland’s Climate Adaptation Strategy (Q-CAS).
Climate projections information can help local government, business, primary producers and communities understand their risk build resilience and minimise the impacts of climate change.
Queensland has a highly variable climate with significant variations in seasonal rainfall at annual, inter-annual and decadal time scales. Queensland also experiences high-impact extreme weather events such as droughts, floods, tropical cyclones, bushfires and severe storms.
Queensland’s future climate is expected to be warmer, with changes to rainfall, potential evaporation and the frequency and severity of extreme weather events. Sea level is expected to rise increasing the risk coastal hazards including coastal erosion and extreme high sea level events.
Regional climate change projections
Regional climate change projections resources, providing information about future climate, are now available for 13 Queensland regions.
The Climate Change in Queensland map application and the Regional climate change impact summaries are based on the CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology’s Climate Change in Australia data.
These projections resources use both lower and high emissions futures modelling. The high emissions future (RCP 8.5) assumes business as usual or no curbing of greenhouse gas emissions. A lower emissions future (RCP 4.5) assumes a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.
Climate Change in Queensland map application
The Climate Change in Queensland map application illustrates the projected impacts of climate change for the years 2030, 2050, 2070.
Using the map application, you can view the average changes in temperature, rainfall and evaporation projected for your region.
The application features pop-up charts, graphs and data tables showing climate change projections for both lower and high greenhouse gas emissions.
Regional climate change impact summaries
The Regional climate change impact summaries aim to help Queenslanders understand and adapt to our changing climate by providing a snapshot of the climate risks, impacts and responses in each region.
They show climate change projections for the years 2030 and 2070 at a statewide level and for 13 Queensland regions.
- Queensland (PDF, 5.3MB)
- Cape York (PDF, 4.4MB)
- Central Queensland (PDF, 5.3MB)
- Central West Queensland (PDF, 4.9MB)
- Eastern Downs (PDF, 5.2KB)
- Far North Queensland (PDF, 6.1MB)
- Gulf Region (PDF, 4.8MB)
- Maranoa and District (PDF, 4.9MB)
- North Queensland (PDF, 4.9MB)
- North West Queensland (PDF, 4.1MB)
- South East Queensland (PDF, 5MB)
- South West Queensland (PDF, 5.5MB)
- Whitsunday, Hinterland and Mackay (PDF, 4.5MB)
- Wide Bay-Burnett (PDF, 4.2MB).
High resolution projections
High resolution climate change projection data is also being developed in two stages.
- Stage 1—Projections will have a finer scale (down to 10 kilometre grid).
Release of model ready data: end of 2016.
- Stage 2—Projections will incorporate detailed information on the frequency and intensity of extreme events such as heat waves, droughts, high rainfall events and floods.
Release including updating the map application: mid–2017.